Presenter: David C.W. Parker

Date: Tuesday, Oct. 11th

   NOTE: DAY IS TUESDAY, NOT MONDAY

Time: 6:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.  

  NOTE: TIME IS DIFFERENT FROM USUAL SIDETRIPS

Location: Holiday Inn

Recent political science scholarship emphasizing election forecasting has boldly proclaimed that campaigns rarely affect election outcomes. Nate Silver has predicted the outcomes of presidential and congressional elections well in advance of official campaigns. In the well-regarded book, The Gamble, John Sides and Lynn Vavrek demonstrate how President Obama’s reelection was never really in doubt—and how little the campaign run by Mitt Romney mattered.  In this wide ranging talk about elections, David Parker will consider the question of when and how campaigns can have an effect on election outcomes. This is especially important given the rise of Donald Trump, the strong effort by Bernie Sanders to contest the Democratic nomination, and the complete failure of much pre-election forecasting.

Presenter Bio: David C.W. Parker is an associate professor of political science at Montana State University. He is the author of Battle for the Big Sky: Representation and the Politics of Place in the Race for the U.S. Senate and The Power of Money in Congressional Campaigns, 1880-2006, as well as articles on the consequences of divided government and how members of Congress employ their office expenditures to build reputations with constituents. His article, “Making a Good Impression: Resource Allocations, Home Styles, and Washington Work,” won the 2010 Alan Rosenthal Award from the American Political Science Association. Parker frequently provides media commentary for local, state, and national news outlets and writes and coordinates a blog for the Montana State University political science department entitled Big Sky Political Analysis.

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